France came into Tuesday’s semi-final as the number one team in the world.
Perfect record — six wins from six. Mbappé with 8 goals, tied for the tournament lead. Dembélé with 5. The best attack in the competition by a distance, and a defence that had just held Morocco to five shots in the quarter-final.
Spain beat them 2-0, and it never really looked in doubt.
How It Happened
Oyarzabal converted from the spot in the 22nd minute. Pedro Porro added the second on 58. Between those two goals, France had nothing.
Ten shots each. But France put just three on target and none of them from inside the box that mattered. For a team averaging a goal every 65 minutes through Mbappé alone, that’s a shutdown.
This is the third time in a row Spain have knocked France out of something. Euro 2024 semi-final: 2-1. Nations League semi-final: 5-4. Now this. De la Fuente called it before kickoff — “we’re the only team to have beaten them in two semifinals.” Make that three.
The Numbers Behind Spain
This is where it gets serious.
One goal conceded. In seven matches. That’s the entire tournament. Their record run of six straight World Cup clean sheets only ended in the quarter-final against Belgium, and Unai Simón’s shutout streak ran to 649 minutes before that.
36 games unbeaten. 27 wins, 9 draws, zero losses. Spain haven’t lost a football match since March 2024, when Colombia beat them. That’s over two years.
They started slow and got scary. Remember the 0-0 draw with Cape Verde? Everyone wrote them off. Since then: Saudi Arabia, Uruguay, Austria 3-0, Portugal 1-0, Belgium 2-1, France 2-0. Six straight wins, every one of them controlled.
Spain haven’t won a World Cup since 2010. This is only their second semi-final ever. And they’re now 90 minutes from the trophy.
Where the Outright Market Sits
Here’s the honest picture after Tuesday.
Spain started this tournament as favourites, drifted out to around +320 after the sluggish start, and have now come all the way back in to roughly -156 to lift the trophy. That’s a big move in one night.
France were +150 and are gone. That’s the biggest liability off the board for the bookmakers, and they’ll be relieved.
The other semi-final is a genuine coin flip — England around -120, Argentina around +100. Whoever survives Atlanta faces Spain at MetLife on Sunday.
The Golden Boot has shifted too. With Mbappé eliminated, Messi is now the clear favourite at around -175. Kane is out at +900 and Bellingham at 14-1. If Argentina go through tonight, Messi has one more game to extend his lead.
Is Spain Worth Backing?
The case for is strong. They control games. They don’t concede. They’ve beaten France three times running. And they have Yamal, who — despite only one goal this tournament — is still the player opposition defences have to plan around.
The case against is more interesting.
Spain grind. They win 1-0 and 2-1. Against Argentina in a final, with Messi in the form of his life on 8 goals, a single moment could undo 90 minutes of control. Same with England — Rice’s set-piece delivery onto Kane is a genuine weapon, and Spain would have to defend those perfectly.
The value question: at -156, Spain are priced like they’ve already won it. If you like Spain, that price won’t get better. If you think the final is closer than the market says — and it might be — the underdog side of that number is where the value lives.
What to Watch Tonight
England vs Argentina in Atlanta decides who faces Spain. Two things to keep an eye on:
If Argentina go through — the final becomes Messi vs the best defence in the tournament. The narrative sells itself, but Spain’s structure is exactly the kind of thing that has frustrated Argentina all tournament.
If England go through — it’s their first final since 1966, and their set-piece threat is the one route through Spain’s back line. More interesting tactically than most people expect.
Either way, the market will move overnight. If you’re backing anything, know that Wednesday’s odds and Thursday’s odds will look different.
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